A Nonstationary Negative Binomial Time Series with Time-Dependent Covariates: Enterococcus Counts in Boston Harbor

Boston Harbor has had a history of poor water quality, including contamination by enteric pathogens. We conduct a statistical analysis of data collected by the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA) between 1996 and 2002 to evaluate the effects of court-mandated improvements in sewage treatment. Motivated by the ineffectiveness of standard Poisson mixture models and their zero-inflated counterparts, we propose a new negative binomial model for time series of Enterococcus counts in Boston Harbor, where nonstationarity and autocorrelation are modeled using a nonparametric smooth function of time in the predictor. Without further restrictions, this function is not identifiable in the presence of time-dependent covariates; consequently we use a basis orthogonal to the space spanned by the covariates and use penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL) for estimation. We conclude that Enterococcus counts were greatly reduced near the Nut Island Treatment Plant (NITP) outfalls following the transfer of wastewaters from NITP to the Deer Island Treatment Plant (DITP) and that the transfer of wastewaters from Boston Harbor to the offshore diffusers in Massachusetts Bay reduced the Enterococcus counts near the DITP outfalls

Analysis of sampling plan options for tank 16H from the perspective of statistical uncertainty

This report develops a concentration variability model for Tank 16H in order to compare candidate sampling plans for assessing the concentrations of analytes in the residual material in the annulus and on the floor of the primary vessel. A concentration variability model is used to compare candidate sampling plans based on the expected upper 95% confidence limit (UCL95) for the mean. The result is expressed as a rank order of candidate sampling plans from lowest to highest expected UCL95, with the lowest being the most desirable from an uncertainty perspective

A Lagrangian analysis of ice-supersaturated air over the North Atlantic

Understanding the nature of air parcels that exhibit ice-supersaturation is important because they are the regions of potential formation of both cirrus and aircraft contrails, which affect the radiation balance. Ice-supersaturated air parcels in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over the North Atlantic are investigated using Lagrangian trajectories. The trajectory calculations use ERA-Interim data for three winter and three summer seasons, resulting in approximately 200,000 trajectories with ice-supersaturation for each season. For both summer and winter, the median duration of ice-supersaturation along a trajectory is less than 6 hours. 5% of air which becomes ice-supersaturated in the troposphere, and 23% of air which becomes ice-supersaturated in the stratosphere will remain ice-supersaturated for at least 24 hours. Weighting the ice-supersaturation duration with the observed frequency indicates the likely overall importance of the longer duration ice-supersaturated trajectories. Ice-supersaturated air parcels typically experience a decrease in moisture content while ice-supersaturated, suggesting that cirrus clouds eventually form in the majority of such air. A comparison is made between short-lived (less than 24 h) and long-lived (greater than 24 h) ice-supersaturated air flows. For both air flows, ice-supersaturation occurs around the northernmost part of the trajectory. Short-lived ice-supersaturated air flows show no significant differences in speed or direction of movement to subsaturated air parcels. However, long-lived ice-supersaturated air occurs in slower moving air flows, which implies that they are not associated with the fastest moving air through a jet stream

Evidencing a place for the hippocampus within the core scene processing network

Functional neuroimaging studies have identified several “core” brain regions that are preferentially activated by scene stimuli, namely posterior parahippocampal gyrus (PHG), retrosplenial cortex (RSC), and transverse occipital sulcus (TOS). The hippocampus (HC), too, is thought to play a key role in scene processing, although no study has yet investigated scene-sensitivity in the HC relative to these other “core” regions. Here, we characterised the frequency and consistency of individual scene-preferential responses within these regions by analysing a large dataset (n = 51) in which participants performed a one-back working memory task for scenes, objects, and scrambled objects. An unbiased approach was adopted by applying independently-defined anatomical ROIs to individual-level functional data across different voxel-wise thresholds and spatial filters. It was found that the majority of subjects had preferential scene clusters in PHG (max = 100% of participants), RSC (max = 76%), and TOS (max = 94%). A comparable number of individuals also possessed significant scene-related clusters within their individually defined HC ROIs (max = 88%), evidencing a HC contribution to scene processing. While probabilistic overlap maps of individual clusters showed that overlap “peaks” were close to those identified in group-level analyses (particularly for TOS and HC), inter-individual consistency varied across regions and statistical thresholds. The inter-regional and inter-individual variability revealed by these analyses has implications for how scene-sensitive cortex is localised and interrogated in functional neuroimaging studies, particularly in medial temporal lobe regions, such as the H

Radiative forcing due to carbon dioxide decomposed into its component vibrational bands

The radiative forcing (RF) of climate change due to increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is primarily in the wavenumber region 500–850 cm−1 (wavelengths of approximately 12 to 20 μm). It originates from absorption and emission of infrared radiation due to vibrational–rotational transitions of the CO2 molecule. While this RF has been the subject of intense and detailed study, to date, the contribution of different vibrational transitions to this forcing has not been explored. This article presents an analysis of radiative transfer calculations that quantify the role of different vibrational transitions and illustrates that while the fundamental bending mode contributes nearly 90% of the total infrared intensity, it contributes less than half of the RF at present-day CO2 concentrations; this is because the absorption at the centre of this fundamental band is so intense that the effect of additional CO2 is strongly muted. By successively adding in additional CO2 bands to the calculations, it is demonstrated that a key spectroscopic phenomenon, known as Fermi Resonance (an interaction between excited states of the bending and the symmetric stretching modes of CO2) leads to a significant spreading of the infrared intensity to both higher and lower wavenumbers, where the fundamental bending mode is less important. The Fermi Resonance transitions contribute only about 4% of the total infrared intensity in this spectral region but cause more than half of the present-day RF. The less-abundant isotopologues of CO2 have little impact on the spectrally integrated RF, but this small contribution results from a compensation between more significant positive and negative contributions to the spectral RF. This work does not alter the results of detailed RF calculations available in the literature; rather, it helps explain the physical basis of that forcing

Methane's solar radiative forcing

Methane (CH4) has significant absorption bands at wavelengths of 1.7, 2.3, 3.3 and 7.6 μm which absorb incoming solar ‘shortwave’ (SW) radiation and contribute to radiative forcing (RF). A comprehensive quantification of CH4 SW RF is presented using a narrow-band radiative transfer model to calculate spatially and monthly resolved estimates of CH4 SW RF and its impact on longwave (LW) stratospheric temperature adjusted RF (SARF). These new calculations include satellite measurements of CH4 distribution and spectrally varying surface albedo, and include absorption of solar mid-infrared radiation by methane's 7.6 μm band. These factors substantially influence methane's SW effect. For a 750–1,800 ppb perturbation, the all-sky top-of-atmosphere SW instantaneous RF is 0.082 W m−2; at the tropopause it is 0.002 W m−2, considerably smaller than previous estimates. Including the impact of SW absorption on stratospheric temperature increases tropopause SARF by 0.039 W m−2 (or 7%) compared to the LW-only SARF

VARIABILITY OF KD VALUES IN CEMENTITIOUS MATERIALS AND SEDIMENTS

Measured distribution coefficients (K{sub d} values) for environmental contaminants provide input data for performance assessments (PA) that evaluate physical and chemical phenomena for release of radionuclides from wasteforms, degradation of engineered components and subsequent transport of radionuclides through environmental media. Research efforts at SRNL to study the effects of formulation and curing variability on the physiochemical properties of the saltstone wasteform produced at the Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF) are ongoing and provide information for the PA and Saltstone Operations. Furthermore, the range and distribution of plutonium K{sub d} values in soils is not known. Knowledge of these parameters is needed to provide guidance for stochastic modeling in the PA. Under the current SRS liquid waste processing system, supernate from F & H Tank Farm tanks is processed to remove actinides and fission products, resulting in a low-curie Decontaminated Salt Solution (DSS). At the Saltstone Production Facility (SPF), DSS is mixed with premix, comprised of blast furnace slag (BFS), Class F fly ash (FA), and portland cement (OPC) to form a grout mixture. The fresh grout is subsequently placed in SDF vaults where it cures through hydration reactions to produce saltstone, a hardened monolithic waste form. Variation in saltstone composition and cure conditions of grout can affect the saltstone's physiochemical properties. Variations in properties may originate from variables in DSS, premix, and water to premix ratio, grout mixing, placing, and curing conditions including time and temperature (Harbour et al. 2007; Harbour et al. 2009). There are no previous studies reported in the literature regarding the range and distribution of K{sub d} values in cementitious materials. Presently, the Savannah River Site (SRS) estimate ranges and distributions of K{sub d} values based on measurements of K{sub d} values made in sandy SRS sediments (Kaplan 2010). The actual cementitious material K{sub d} values and solubility values differ from the sandy sediments. The K{sub d} value range and distribution currently used in the PA are estimated to range between 0.25*K{sub d} and 1.75*K{sub d}, where the minimum and maximum values of the ranges reflect the 95% confidence level for the mean K{sub d} value (Kaplan 2010). The objective of the research with cementitious materials was to measure the range and distribution of a monovalent (Cs) and I{sup -} (anion), divalent (Sr), and trivalent (Eu) ions for a variety of laboratory-prepared saltstone surrogate samples to establish a K{sub d} range other than that which is presently used in the PA. It has been observed in laboratory samples that cure temperature profiles can affect properties such as heat of hydration, permeability, porosity, compressive strength, and set time (Harbour et al. 2009). The intent was to identify a range and distribution that could be used by stochastic modelers for the PA. Furthermore, the intent was to replace the arbitrarily selected distributions based on geological sandy sediments and to base it on actual cementitious materials. The scope of this study did not include understanding saltstone sorption mechanisms responsible for increasing or decreasing sorption. Similar to the work with cementitious materials, the purpose of the Pu sediment K{sub d} dataset was not to attempt to understand through statistics how to better understand Pu sorption to sediments or to lower Pu K{sub d} variance. The sediment Pu K{sub d} data is included in this study because it is a key risk driver for the PAs on the SRS, and there is presently no direct studies of Pu variability in SRS soils. Instead the distribution of Pu sediment K{sub d} values was assumed to be similar to other cations, as presented by Kaplan (2010)

A sub-field scale critical source area index for legacy phosphorus management using high resolution data

AbstractDiffuse phosphorus (P) mitigation in agricultural catchments should be targeted at critical source areas (CSAs) that consider source and transport factors. However, development of CSA identification needs to consider the mobilisation potential of legacy soil P sources at the field scale, and the control of (micro)topography on runoff generation and hydrological connectivity at the sub-field scale. To address these limitations, a ‘next generation’ sub-field scale CSA index is presented, which predicts the risk of dissolved P losses in runoff from legacy soil P. The GIS-based CSA Index integrates two factors; mobile soil P concentrations (water extractable P; WEP) and a hydrologically sensitive area (HSA) index. The HSA Index identifies runoff-generating-areas using high resolution LiDAR Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), a soil topographic index (STI) and information on flow sinks and effects on hydrological connectivity. The CSA Index was developed using four intensively monitored agricultural catchments (7.5–11km2) in Ireland with contrasting agri-environmental conditions. Field scale soil WEP concentrations were estimated using catchment and land use specific relationships with Morgan P concentrations. In-stream total reactive P (TRP) concentrations and discharge were measured sub-hourly at catchment outlet bankside analysers and gauging stations during winter closed periods for fertiliser spreading in 2009–14, and hydrograph/loadograph separation methods were used to estimate TRP loads and proportions from quickflow (surface runoff). A strong relationship between TRP concentrations in quickflow and soil WEP concentrations (r2=0.73) was used to predict dissolved P concentrations in runoff at the field scale, which were then multiplied by the HSA Index to generate sub-field scale CSA Index maps. Evaluation of the tool showed a very strong relationship between the total CSA Index value within the HSA and the total TRP load in quickflow (r2=0.86). Using a CSA Index threshold value of ≥0.5, the CSA approach identified 1.1–5.6% of catchment areas at highest risk of legacy soil P transfers, compared with 4.0–26.5% of catchment areas based on an existing approach that uses above agronomic optimum soil P status. The tool could be used to aid cost-effective targeting of sub-field scale mitigation measures and best management practices at delivery points of CSA pathways to reduce dissolved P losses from legacy P stores and support sustainable agricultural production

Direct radiative effect of aerosols emitted by transport from road, shipping and aviation

Aerosols and their precursors are emitted abundantly by transport activities. Transportation constitutes one of the fastest growing activities and its growth is predicted to increase significantly in the future. Previous studies have estimated the aerosol direct radiative forcing from one transport sub-sector, but only one study to our knowledge estimated the range of radiative forcing from the main aerosol components (sulphate, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon) for the whole transportation sector. In this study, we compare results from two different chemical transport models and three radiation codes under different hypothesis of mixing: internal and external mixing using emission inventories for the year 2000. The main results from this study consist of a positive direct radiative forcing for aerosols emitted by road traffic of +20±11 mW m−2 for an externally mixed aerosol, and of +32±13 mW m−2 when BC is internally mixed. These direct radiative forcings are much higher than the previously published estimate of +3±11 mW m−2. For transport activities from shipping, the net direct aerosol radiative forcing is negative. This forcing is dominated by the contribution of the sulphate. For both an external and an internal mixture, the radiative forcing from shipping is estimated at −26±4 mW m−2. These estimates are in very good agreement with the range of a previously published one (from −46 to −13 mW m−2) but with a much narrower range. By contrast, the direct aerosol forcing from aviation is estimated to be small, and in the range −0.9 to +0.3 mW m−2